Making Moves In The Canadian Landscape
Building Value When Others Wait: Contrarian Moves in the Current Canadian Market
When everyone else is playing defense, that’s often the best time to quietly go on offense.
It’s easy to get swept up in the caution blanketing Canada’s commercial real estate scene right now — investment volumes dropped 22% year-over-year in Q2 2025, according to Altus Group. Headlines are filled with phrases like “wait-and-see”, “price discovery”, and “market uncertainty.”
But behind the fear, opportunity is quietly building.
Because while some investors are sitting on cash, waiting for the “perfect moment,” others are taking action — targeting overlooked assets, under-the-radar neighbourhoods, and properties with hidden value. These are the contrarian investors — the ones who understand that the best time to build wealth isn’t when everyone’s confident. It’s when everyone’s cautious.
The Market Reality: Hesitation Creates Openings
Let’s be honest: sentiment right now is muted. Between fluctuating interest rate expectations, refinancing pressures, and tighter lending criteria, the path of least resistance is to wait.
But “waiting” isn’t a strategy. It’s a pause button — and pauses create space for others to move.
Across Ontario, particularly in mid-tier markets like Durham Region, Hamilton, and Niagara, sellers are more negotiable than they’ve been in years. Properties that would have sparked bidding wars in 2021 are now sitting on the market, opening the door for creative deals — vendor take-backs, joint ventures, and value-add repositioning plays.
Smart investors aren’t chasing the same trophy assets in downtown cores. They’re exploring the overlooked. The outdated. The under-managed. Because these are the buildings that quietly hold the most upside.
Contrarian Move #1: Targeting Under-the-Radar Neighbourhoods
While major metros like Toronto are still commanding attention (and hefty price tags), savvy investors are turning their gaze east — to Pickering, Oshawa, Bowmanville, and Courtice.
These Durham communities are undergoing a transformation that most casual investors haven’t fully grasped yet. Major infrastructure investments — from the GO Train expansion to the Seaton development and upcoming hospital in Pickering — are laying the groundwork for long-term growth.
Add in relative affordability compared to the GTA core, and you’ve got a market where the fundamentals are strengthening while prices remain (for now) within reach.
This is where patient, data-driven investors thrive: they buy before everyone else catches on.
A small multifamily or mixed-use property purchased today in a transitioning neighbourhood could easily outpace appreciation in more saturated markets. And when interest rates eventually ease, these “fringe” areas often experience a faster lift — because they start from a lower base.
Contrarian Move #2: Focusing on Multi-Units with Value-Add Potential
Another contrarian play? Small to mid-size multi-unit residential buildings with clear value-add paths.
Think 6- to 20-unit buildings where rents are below market and minor improvements — modernized kitchens, new flooring, upgraded lighting, or even just better property management — can lift Net Operating Income (NOI) significantly.
In today’s slower market, sellers with outdated properties may not have the funds or appetite to renovate. That’s your edge. With construction costs stabilizing and trades more available than they were during the pandemic frenzy, strategic renovations are once again viable.
Investors who can increase cash flow and equity through operational improvements — rather than relying on market appreciation alone — are setting themselves up for strong long-term returns regardless of where interest rates land.
Remember: you can’t control the market, but you can control the value you create.
Contrarian Move #3: Finding Opportunity in Slower Markets
There’s another overlooked opportunity — secondary and tertiary markets that were off the radar during the 2021 boom.
Communities like Peterborough, Belleville, and Barrie are seeing modest population growth and strong rental demand, but investor activity there has cooled dramatically. That creates breathing room — and room to negotiate.
In markets like these, cash flow is easier to achieve, and competition is lower. Cap rates are often 100 to 200 basis points higher than in the GTA, providing a cushion against short-term rate fluctuations.
These markets also offer a fertile testing ground for new strategies — student housing conversions, short-term rentals (where permitted), or boutique co-living spaces. By thinking creatively, you can step into niches that institutional players overlook entirely.
Playing the Long Game: Bold, Informed Moves
Contrarian investing isn’t about being reckless — it’s about being informed when others are emotional.
While fear drives many to pull back, data-driven investors are doubling down on fundamentals:
- Due diligence: Run conservative underwriting models that stress-test for higher vacancy or rate fluctuations.
- Relationships: Build direct ties with brokers, appraisers, and property managers who have on-the-ground insights.
- Liquidity: Maintain a buffer for unexpected costs or opportunities.
- Creativity: Explore vendor financing, joint ventures, or even rent-to-own structures when conventional deals stall.
When the crowd retreats, markets become inefficient. That’s where contrarians quietly pick up undervalued assets — and reap outsized returns later.
As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
We are squarely in the second half of that equation.
The Emotional Edge: Courage and Conviction
Let’s talk mindset for a second — because that’s what truly separates the contrarian investor.
It takes courage to buy when others are selling. To invest when your peers are waiting. To believe in the long-term story of real estate — even when the short-term feels uncertain.
But that’s also what creates the biggest wealth transfer moments in history. Those who take decisive, educated action during downturns don’t just survive — they leapfrog ahead.
So while others are sitting on the sidelines, you could be quietly building value, positioning yourself for the inevitable upswing that follows every market pause.
Because make no mistake — the market will turn. The only question is: will you be watching from the sidelines, or will you already be in position?
Final Thoughts
The Canadian real estate market isn’t dead — it’s resetting. And that reset is precisely what creates room for innovation, negotiation, and value creation.
If you have the vision, the data, and the nerve to act now, this cycle could become the foundation of your next big win.
While others wait — you build. That’s how wealth is made.
Sources:
- Altus Group: Canadian Investment Trends Q2 2025
- Durham Region Official Plan & Metrolinx Expansion Updates
- CREA Market Statistics
Let’s build wealth the smart way – together!
And, if you’re thinking about buying, selling or investing in Durham Region or Toronto, let’s chat! I can be reached at 647-896.6584, by email at info@serenaholmesrealtor.com or by filling out this simple contact form. You can also kick off your search for Durham Region homes for sale by clicking here.
In addition, make sure we’re connected on social and you’ve subscribed to my YouTube Channel. And, for other articles specific to real estate investing, click here.
