The Case To Be Made For Investing Outside The Downtown Core
Secondary Markets Are Hot: Why Investors Should Look Beyond the GTA Core
The gold rush is moving — and as an investor, you have a choice: follow the crowd into the obvious hotspots, or position ahead of it. When I look at the mid-sized Ontario markets like Hamilton, Ontario, Kitchener‑Waterloo, Ontario and London, Ontario, I see the latter.
Having grown up and operate in the Greater Toronto Area (in Pickering), I know the pressure in the core: prices are punishing, competition is fierce, and affordability is bleeding out. So many buyers and investors are already looking west and southwest for the next wave—and that presents real opportunity.
Why the GTA Core is losing its shine
The GTA has been the heavyweight champion for years. But today, the title is on shaky ground. The latest data show that average home prices in the Central Ontario (GTA-anchored) region reached over $1.1 million in June 2025. By contrast, more “secondary” but still substantial markets offer much lower entry points. For example:
- Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge: average home price ~$753,000 in September 2025 (down ~4.5% from a year prior).
- London: average home price ~$562,300 in September 2025 (down ~8% year over year).
- Hamilton: average home price ~$777,786 (down ~4.8% YOY).
These are meaningful differences. As a listing agent in Durham Region, I continually see the impact: buyers who would have once only considered Toronto or the inner ring suburbs are now expanding their “acceptable commute” or lifestyle trade-offs. Often, affordability is the pivot.
The emotional hook: Are you chasing the pack or leading it?
Picture this: you arrive late to the mining camp only to find the nuggets are picked clean. The first wave of buyers drove up every asset reachable from the GTA core. Now the pick-axe is shifting further out. If you’re simply chasing the already-well-touted markets, you’re paying for risk. If you’re aiming ahead, you’re trading a little patience for a potentially bigger return.
As investors, we ask: Where is the growth potential still alive? Rather than where has the crowd already gone?
Evaluating “Growth Potential” vs. “Game Already Baked In”
When assessing secondary markets, I like to break the analysis into two parts: potential and risk-reward.
Growth potential
Here are a few key signals:
- Affordability catch-up – People are priced out of the core and need alternative markets. Hamilton, Kitchener and London are benefiting from migration driven by affordability.
- Job growth + infrastructure – Kitchener-Waterloo benefits from tech sector growth; Hamilton has a deepening medical/education base; London has a large post-secondary presence. Rob Golfi+2Wikipedia+2
- Proximity and connectivity – The closer to the GTA or decent transit/road links, the better. For example: from Pickering I still monitor the expansion corridors north and east of the GTA, but also watch opportunities in markets with quick highway/GO access.
- Room for appreciation – If average prices are well below the core and inventory days are higher, there’s margin for upside as sentiment shifts.
Game already baked in
The flip side:
- If a market has already skyrocketed and everyone’s “in”, the risk of plateau or correction is higher. Kitchener-Waterloo’s average price has moved substantially in the last decade (e.g., +114% over 10 years) despite the recent dip.
- Elevated prices + high competition = less margin for error.
- Data today show Kitchener-Waterloo and London are in buyer-favourable states (inventory rising). For example, London’s sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) dropped to ~31.4% in Sep 2025, signalling a buyer-market tilt.
In short: If you pick a market where the growth story is near saturation, you end up buying at the top of someone else’s move. If you pick one still evolving, you’ve got time on your side.
Risk vs. Reward in Secondary Markets
Being in secondary markets doesn’t mean easy wins—there are risks and real-world tradeoffs. As investors, you have to calibrate.
Rewards:
- Better price entry point → potentially higher % upside.
- Less crowded away-play compared to core markets.
- Potential for favourable rental yields in lower-entry markets.
- Movements of people (remote work, commuters) support these markets.
Risks:
- Slower liquidity: property may sit longer due to less demand than a hot downtown area.
- Dependence on local job/infrastructure growth: if the engine stalls, so does the upside.
- Greater sensitivity to interest rates and regional economy.
- Price peaks may be further out / smaller in scale than core markets if everything goes right (i.e., more “steady growth” than “shoot to the moon”).
Finance body forecast for Ontario notes that while ground-oriented homes may grow faster in 2025, overall price growth will moderate by 2026-27. So you’re not guaranteed double-digit gains, but you could lock in a favourable risk-reward equation.
How You Can Leverage Your GTA Position & Watch Expansion Corridors
Since you’re based in Pickering and work in Durham and the G.T.A., you already have an advantage: you understand the commuter mindset, regional infrastructure, growth corridors.
Here are some tactics:
- Keep one foot in the core, one in the secondary. You might list and invest locally while you also scout out secondary markets further afield. Your knowledge base gives you an edge in spotting “next wave” suburbs or cities.
- Dial into expansion corridors. Think road/rail improvements, the spill-over effect of the GTA (north-east in Durham, west to Hamilton, Waterloo corridor). These areas often yield the “affordability push meets infrastructure improvement” combination.
- Track metrics not just price, but inventory & demand. For example, London’s inventory is rising (months of supply ~6), indicating more choice for buyers now – which means you can negotiate favourable terms. nesto.ca
- Be ready to act. Secondary markets may pick up the pace quickly once sentiment shifts. If you’ve already built relationships (inspectors, local agents, contractors), you can move faster than investors who are used to the GTA script.
- Don’t ignore fundamentals. Even in “cheaper” markets you still insist on strong job metrics, transit plans, municipal growth strategy. Your value-adds as an expert listing agent/investor matter here.
Bringing it all together
Investing in secondary Ontario markets isn’t about being opportunistic in the sense of wild short-term plays—it’s about smart positioning. The crowds have stretched the GTA core beyond what many can reasonably absorb. The next phase of growth is happening in the next ring out.
For you, as someone deeply embedded in Durham/Greater Toronto and used to analyzing markets, the opportunity is two-fold:
-Continue dominating your ground as a listing agent in the Pickering-Durham-GTA hub. The demand for trusted real-estate advisors (with the values, integrity and communication you bring) is only increasing.
-Invest with intention in select secondary markets where price entry is still favourable, where infrastructure/commute trends align, and where your personal investment thesis pairs with your professional expertise.
But remember: Don’t just chase the hype. Evaluate whether the story is still unfolding or already told. Ensure you’re buying based on real signals of growth, not simply “cheapest price”. Accept that growth may be steadier, not explosive. And be ready, because once the move ignites in a secondary market, the newcomers will flood in—and you want to be ahead of that wave, not chasing it from behind.
So: Will you be on the sidelines watching everyone else pick over the leftovers—or will you be one of the early diggers, the ones with the map drawn before the miners arrived?
Let’s build wealth the smart way – together!
And, if you’re thinking about buying, selling or investing in Durham Region or Toronto, let’s chat! I can be reached at 647-896.6584, by email at info@serenaholmesrealtor.com or by filling out this simple contact form. You can also kick off your search for Durham Region homes for sale by clicking here.
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