What’s Happening In Toronto’s Real Estate Market
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market has been navigating a complex landscape in early 2025, shaped by fluctuating sales, price adjustments, and broader economic factors.
As a seasoned realtor and investor, I’ve observed firsthand how these dynamics are influencing both buyers and sellers in our community.
The Toronto housing market hit the brakes in March — but is it just catching its breath?
TRREB just released its stats, and here’s the big picture:
5,011 sales were recorded through MLS — down 23.1% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, new listings surged 28.6% to 17,263. Inventory is building, sitting at 2.7 months of supply, and average prices dipped by 2.5% to $1,093,254.
So what’s going on?
Despite lower borrowing costs and softer home prices nudging affordability in the right direction, many buyers are holding back.
The reasons?
Ongoing economic uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the looming federal election on April 28th are making people cautious.
Understandable.
But here’s what’s interesting…
Sales of homes over $2M actually rose 6.4%.
So while the mid-market is hesitating, luxury buyers are stepping in. And even with more inventory, homes are still selling fast — on average, in just 24 days, at 100% of list price.
Breakdown by property type:
• Detached: $1,439,268 (-1.8% YoY / -0.5% MoM)
• Semi-detached: $1,111,791 (-0.9% / +2.9%)
• Townhomes: $908,169 (-3.5% / -0.4%)
• Condos: $682,019 (-2.6% / -0.9%)
The big takeaway?
We’re in a transitional market — and the next 60 days will be telling.
Now that the Liberal leadership race is over and the Bank of Canada has finally started easing interest rates (cutting the key rate by 0.25%), the stage is set.
Add in Canada’s $60B worth of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports and a tightrope walk on trade — and you’ve got a recipe for a very eventful spring.
If you’re a buyer waiting on the sidelines or a seller trying to time the market, it might be time to reassess.
This lull could be the calm before the storm.
Looking Back A Little Further
In February 2025, the GTA’s housing market experienced a notable downturn. Home sales plummeted by 28.5% compared to the previous month, a stark contrast to the 12.4% increase seen in January.
Year-over-year, this represents a 27.4% decline. The average home price also saw a slight decrease, settling at approximately $1,063,300, down 1.8% from February 2024.
Despite these figures, there are pockets of resilience. For instance, the average selling price of a single-family home in Toronto rose by 1.3% year-over-year to $1,294,000 in February.
Conversely, condo prices faced a 3.4% decline, averaging $642,300.
Economic Influences: Navigating Uncertainty
The recent market slowdown can be attributed to several economic factors. Trade uncertainties, particularly concerns about relations with the United States, have dampened consumer confidence.
Additionally, while the Bank of Canada has implemented interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, affordability remains a significant challenge for many potential buyers.
To Summarize The February Stats!
Sales were down 27.4% year-over-year, with 4,037 transactions reported through the MLS. Unpredictable weather and economic uncertainty played a role in slowing buyer activity.
More homes on the market – With 12,066 new listings (+5.4% YoY) and active listings up a significant 76% (now at 19,536), buyers have more choices heading into March. Housing inventory has reached 4.8 months.
Prices dipped slightly – The average home sold for $1,084,547, a 2.2% decrease from last year. However, some property types saw monthly gains:
- Detached: $1,445,879 (+5.0% MoM, +0.2% YoY)
- Semi-Detached: $1,079,996 (+3.1% MoM, -4.0% YoY)
- Townhomes: $911,483 (+0.7% MoM, -2.3% YoY)
- Condos: $688,055 (+2.6% MoM, -1.3% YoY)
Market insights: Homes sold in an average of 28 days, at 99% of the listing price. Sales in the $600K–$1.5M range made up nearly 70% of transactions, while high-end properties over $2M saw a 6.2% increase.
Bond market decline & interest rates
The bond market has been trending downward, which is significant because bond yields directly impact fixed mortgage rates. As yields decline, we could continue to see lower borrowing costs in the coming months—great news for buyers looking to enter the market or homeowners considering a refinance.
What’s next?
With the federal election on the horizon and economic uncertainty (including a U.S.-Canada trade dispute), market conditions could shift further. But with interest rate cuts expected later this year, affordability may improve, bringing more buyers into the market.
Looking Ahead: Projections and Opportunities
Despite current challenges, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) forecasts a moderate rebound in the housing market.
Projections for 2025 include a 12.4% rise in home sales and a 2.6% increase in average selling prices, with the average price expected to reach $1,147,000.
Strategies for Buyers and Sellers
In this evolving market, strategic planning is crucial:
- For Sellers: With increased inventory and cautious buyer sentiment, it’s essential to price your property competitively and ensure it stands out through effective staging and marketing.
- For Buyers: The current market offers opportunities to negotiate favorable terms. However, due diligence is key—thoroughly assess properties and consider long-term value before making commitments.
The GTA real estate market in 2025 presents both challenges and opportunities. Staying informed and adaptable is paramount. As we navigate these times, leveraging professional insights and maintaining a clear understanding of your goals will be instrumental in achieving success in real estate endeavors.
For other great articles specific to buying a home and selling a home, click here and check out these articles for homeowners also!
If you’re thinking about buying, selling or investing in Durham Region or Toronto, let’s chat! I can be reached at 647-896.6584, by email at info@serenaholmesrealtor.com or by filling out this simple contact form. You can also kick off your search for Durham Region homes for sale by clicking here.
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